WP4: Emergent behaviours of the Improved ConOps

To identify the Emergent behaviours at multiple time scales of the Improved SESAR2020+ Concept of Operations in en-route airspace, and to learn understanding the underlying systemic interactions.

WP4 is organized through conducting two successive tasks.

T4.1: Development of an Agent Based Model of the improved SESAR2020+ ConOps. This is accomplished through conducting a series of steps:

• Adapt the mathematical specification of the SESAR2020+ developed Agent Based Model according to the improvements identified in EMERGIA report D3;
• Implement the changes in the mathematical model specification in Monte Carlo simulation software, and perform a systematic verification of the resulting MC simulation code;
• Identify appropriate values for novel model parameters, including the potential range of epimistic uncertainty.
• Demonstrate/verify the proper working of the MC simulation code for selected scenarios with experts of the Improved SESAR2020+ ConOps.

T4.2: Conduct large scale MC simulations with the agent based model of the Improved SESAR2020+ ConOps. This is accomplished through conducting a series of steps:

• Integrate the MC simulation software with the Particle Swarm Optimization software to realize the required acceleration of the MC simulations.
• Run the accelerated MC simulation software on traffic scenarios that allow to systematically identify the emergent behaviours.
• Conduct sensitivity analysis for key parameters that have significant epimistic uncertainty.
• Compare the emergent behaviours found with those found for the SESAR2020+ ConOps and those found for the advanced airborne self-separation.
• Discuss the results obtained with Improved SESAR2020+ experts.