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WP2: Emergent behaviours of SESAR2020+ ConOps


To identify the Emergent behaviours at multiple time scales of the SESAR2020+ Concept of Operations in en-route airspace, and to learn understanding the underlying systemic interactions.

Description of work

WP2 is organized through conducting two successive tasks.

T2.1: Development of an Agent Based Model of the SESAR2020+ ConOps. This is accomplished through conducting a series of steps:

  • To identify the differences between the SESAR2020+ ConOps and the Agent Based Model that has been developed and evaluated within the iFly project;
  • Adapt the mathematical specification of the iFly developed Agent Based Model according to the differences identified;
  • Implement the changes in the mathematical model specification in Monte Carlo simulation software, and perform a systematic verification of the resulting MC simulation code;
  • Identify appropriate values for the model parameters, including the potential range of epimistic uncertainty.
  • Demonstrate/verify the proper working of the MC simulation code for selected scenarios with experts of the SESAR2020+ ConOps.

T2.2: Conduct large scale MC simulations with the agent based model of the SESAR2020+ ConOps. This is accomplished through conducting a series of steps:

  • Integrate the MC simulation software with the Particle Swarm Optimization software to realize the required acceleration of the MC simulations.
  • Run the accelerated MC simulation software on traffic scenarios that allow to systematically identify the emergent behaviours.
  • Conduct sensitivity analysis for key parameters that have significant epimistic uncertainty.
  • Discuss the results obtained with SESAR2020+ experts.